The Iran-Israel-US conflict and specifically the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has sent jet fuel prices to record highs, forcing scheduled carriers to cancel thousands of flights, raise fares sharply, and warn of worse to come. At the same time, TSA staffing shortages across major US hubs have left commercial terminals in disarray during one of the busiest travel periods of the year. Caught between soaring costs and collapsing service reliability, a growing cohort of travellers are turning to business aviation, and the data is starting to show it, according to the latest data from WingX. Global business jet activity surged 11.3 per cent year-on-year in Week 13, even as the Middle East continues to record some of the sharpest traffic declines since the conflict began.

The broader business jet market continues to demonstrate resilience in the face of the ongoing conflict. Global business jet sectors were up 11.3 per cent YOY in Week 13, with the year-to-date figure (1 January-29 March) 4.5 per cent ahead of last year, marking a notable acceleration from the 2.2 per cent growth achieved over the same period in 2025 over 2024. In the last year, data shows only three weeks that recorded greater than 10 per cent weekly YOY growth, namely Week 45 2025, Week 2 2026 and Week 13 2026. North America anchored weekly YOY growth at 13.3 per cent, while Europe delivered a strong 10.0 per cent increase and South America continued its standout run of growth at 23.9 per cent. In short, displaced commercial passengers appear to be fuelling an unusually strong week for business aviation demand.

Unsurprisingly, business aviation demand in the Middle East has wilted, but with such a small footprint of global traffic, the spillover impact on worldwide trends is still small. With the region accounting for approximately one per cent of global business jet departures in Week 13, the 40.6 per cent year-on-year decline contributed only a 0.4 per cent fall in global activity. On a year-to-date basis, the Middle East accounts for closer to its typical two per cent share of global activity, meaning its cumulative -14.0 per cent YTD underperformance has dragged the global year-to-date figure down by approximately 0.3 percentage points. Put another way, global business jet growth would be running closer to 11.7 per cent in Week 13 and 4.8 per cent year-to-date were it not for the conflict's continued footprint in the region.

More than four weeks since the conflict began on 28 February, the fuel crisis impacting global aviation operations shows no sign of abating. US jet fuel prices have more than doubled since the start of March, with jet fuel hitting $1,710 per metric ton at the end of the month, compared to just $742 a year ago, representing a 130 per cent increase. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of the world's oil normally passes, has choked off supply and is the direct driver of the extreme price increases now cascading through global aviation fuel markets.

The consequences for scheduled aviation are severe and accelerating. According to Cirium data, close to seven per cent of all scheduled flights were cancelled on Monday 30 March, nearly twice the 4.7 per cent rate recorded on the same day last year. United Airlines has become the first major US carrier to cut flights by approximately five per cent, while European carrier SAS is cancelling at least 1,000 April flights. At least for now, this disruption is obviously contributing to stronger business jet demand.

The divergence between commercial and business aviation since the conflict began could not be starker, and nowhere is that more visible than across the US metros hit hardest by TSA staffing shortages. As reported last week, the partial government shutdown has left roughly 50,000 TSA officers working without pay, with callout rates at some of the country's busiest hubs reaching record highs and New Orleans, Atlanta, Houston and Washington all posting rates between 38 and 42 per cent by 22 March, bringing commercial terminals to a near standstill. Compounding this, fuel-cost-driven airline cancellations have accelerated sharply through March, with nearly one in 14 scheduled flights cancelled globally on 30 March alone.

Data for the 1-29 March period across five of the most affected departure cities tells a consistent and striking story: scheduled airline departures are down across the board, while business aviation has grown in every single market. Across the five metros combined, 28,000 business jet departures were recorded, up 12 per cent year-on-year, while roughly 123,500 scheduled airline departures declined four per cent. Houston and Washington DC led business jet growth at +17 per cent each, with New York and New Orleans both posting a 10 per cent increase and Atlanta marking a nine per cent gain. On the airline side, every metro recorded declines, with New Orleans the worst affected at -10 per cent, followed by New York at -five per cent, Washington DC -four per cent, Atlanta -three per cent and Houston -one per cent.

The pattern is consistent enough across five geographically diverse metros to suggest something more than coincidence. With commercial terminals gridlocked, schedules shrinking and airfares climbing sharply, business aviation is absorbing at least a portion of the displaced demand, from travellers with the means to bypass the chaos. The critical question is how long that dynamic holds. If the fuel crisis persists and broader economic damage deepens, the discretionary spending that sustains business jet demand will eventually come under the same pressure currently grounding commercial flights.

Nick Koscinski, WingX analyst, comments: “Now more than a month into the conflict, we're seeing a tale of two aviations. Scheduled carriers are cutting flights, raising fares and warning of worse to come, while the business jet trend has been firmly positive through March. The commercial aviation experience has rarely been more chaotic: with soaring fares, gridlocked terminals and shrinking schedules, those who can afford the alternative are taking it. The caveat is that this is a demand tailwind built on disruption, not underlying growth, and if the fuel crisis persists long enough to put a dent in the discretionary spending that sustains business jet demand, then even business jets won't be immune.”