Since the outbreak of the Iran-Israel-US conflict on 28 February, Middle East business aviation remains deeply disrupted, with 3,789 business jet departures recorded across the conflict-affected last four week period, marking a 28 per cent year-on-year decline driven by a volatile week-by-week trajectory, WingX data reveals.

While the regional crisis continues to cast a shadow over global trends, however, the broader business jet market has demonstrated resilience, with two distinctly American stories dominating the domestic picture this week. The spring break drove 5,860 business jet arrivals across five major leisure destinations, increasing 10 per cent year-on-year, as leisure demand for private aviation holds firm. Simultaneously, the partial government shutdown gripping the Department of Homeland Security has left TSA operations in disarray at major hubs, with callout rates exceeding 40 per cent at some of the country's busiest airports and data showing broad-based business jet growth across the most affected metro areas throughout the disruption period.

Despite headwinds from the Middle East conflict, the global business jet market is holding steady. In Week 12 (16-22 March), global business jet activity rose two per cent compared to the previous week, and five per cent ahead of Week 12 in 2025. Year to date global business jet departures are four per cent ahead of last year, and hours flown are five per cent ahead of last year.

In Europe the last four-week trend is positive; departures are three per cent higher than the comparable last year. Switzerland and Italy recorded a boost in Week 12, with departures 14 and 15 per cent respectively ahead of Week 15 last year.

The Middle East continues to struggle given the continuation of the US-Israel-Iran conflict, dropping 34 per cent compared to Week 12 2025. With the Middle East accounting for one per cent of global departures last week, the Middle East dragged global growth down by 0.4 percentage points.

Since the outbreak in Week 9 on 28 February, data has provided a clear picture of the cumulative toll on Middle East aviation. Across the four conflict-affected weeks, 3,789 business jet departures were recorded in the region, representing a 28 per cent decline year-on-year, but the week-by-week progression tells a more volatile story than that headline figure suggests.

The initial shock of Week 9 produced a 29 per cent year-on-year decline with 1,061 departures, a figure that understates the true impact given the conflict only erupted on the final two days of that week. Week 10 appeared to signal stabilisation, with departures recovering to 1,137 and the year-on-year decline narrowing sharply to just four per cent. However, this was most likely a representation of evacuation flights, rather than a true stabilisation. Week 11 fell decisively lower to just 750 departures, marking a 44 per cent year-on-year collapse and the worst week for Middle East business jet activity since the conflict began. Week 12 has brought a slight increase in departures week-on-week, edging back up to 841, with the year-on-year decline now at 34 per cent.

The scheduled airline picture has followed a broadly parallel but more severe trajectory. Across the same four-week window, 68,841 airline departures were recorded against a year-on-year decline of 45 per cent, significantly deeper than the 28 per cent seen in business aviation. The divergence is notable: business jet operators have shown greater flexibility in managing the disruption, while scheduled carriers have borne a heavier proportional hit. The Week 12 airline figure of 21,882 departures and a 31 per cent year-on-year decline mirrors the business jet trend, with both segments still far from any return to pre- conflict operating levels.

The 1-22 March spring break window has generated a clear and measurable surge in business jet arrivals across five major leisure destinations. Across Miami, Cabo San Lucas, Cancún, Panama City Beach and Punta Cana, 5,860 total business jet arrivals were recorded, up 10 per cent year-on-year, signalling strong leisure demand for private aviation heading into the peak spring travel season. Miami dominated in volume, while Mexico delivered a split verdict with strong gains in Cabo San Lucas offset by a decline in Cancún, while Punta Cana emerged as the year-on-year growth leader across all five destinations.

Miami led all destinations with nearly 4,000 arrivals (+seven per cent YOY), followed by Panama City Beach with 700 arrivals (+24 per cent) and Cabo San Lucas with 500 arrivals (+21 per cent). Punta Cana was the standout leader on a year-on-year basis with 36 per cent growth and 350 arrivals. Cancún was the only destination to record a decline, slipping eight per cent to 350 arrivals, likely reflecting operator caution amid the escalating cartel-government conflict that has weighed on security concerns across the southeastern region of the country.

The partial government shutdown that began on 14 February, leaving roughly 50,000 TSA officers working without pay, has created unprecedented disruption at major US commercial airports during one of the busiest travel periods of the year. Callout rates, the share of scheduled TSA staff failing to report for duty, at the worst-affected hubs reached record highs on 22 March, with New Orleans Louis Armstrong and Atlanta's Hartsfield-Jackson posting 42 per cent, Houston George Bush Intercontinental 39 per cent and Baltimore/Washington 38 per cent. In Houston, wait times exceeded four hours with warnings looping through terminals advising passengers they may not clear security in time for their flights. Philadelphia closed three security checkpoints entirely, New York's LaGuardia saw TSA wait times stretching beyond two hours and San Diego saw lines stretching to the sidewalk. The situation has prompted the Trump administration to deploy ICE agents to the most severely affected airports in an attempt to relieve the backlog.

Against this backdrop, data shows broad-based growth in business jet departures across most of the affected metro areas in the 14 February-22 March window. New York led in volume with nearly 15,500 departures (+two per cent YOY), followed by Houston with 6,750 departures (+ five per cent) and Washington DC with 5,000 departures (+seven per cent). Atlanta recorded 4,800 departures (+five per cent) and San Diego nearly 2,900 departures (+seven per cent). New Orleans posted the strongest growth of any metro in the dataset at +11 per cent with 1,700 departures, while Baltimore reached 1,100 departures (+10 per cent). Philadelphia was the sole market to decline, slipping one per cent to 2,170 departures. Across most metros, the data points to a consistent pattern of business jet growth throughout the period of deepening commercial disruption, suggesting that for those who can afford it, business aviation could have served as a refuge from the uncertainty and hours-long queues plaguing the commercial terminals.

Nick Koscinski, WingX analyst, comments: “Now almost four weeks into the conflict, the Middle East business jet market is still struggling to find its footing, with no clear resolution to the conflict on the horizon. On the other side of the world, the US market is telling a very different story. Spring break delivered a strong 10 per cent jump in business jet arrivals across our five tracked leisure destinations, and while we can't say for certain that the TSA chaos is driving people to private jets, most major affected metros saw business jet growth during the disruption period, so it's hard to imagine that's entirely a coincidence.”