Middle East business aviation activity is showing tentative signs of stabilising two weeks after the outbreak of the Iran–Israel–US conflict, according to the WingX Weekly Global Market Tracker.

Following a sharp downturn in Week 9, business jet departures partially recovered during Week 10, as grounded aircraft gradually began clearing from regional airports.

Week 9 activity had tracked significantly below 2025 levels before collapsing further on 28 February, the day the conflict began, producing a 29% year-on-year decline.

By contrast, Week 10 (2–8 March) showed a more stable pattern. Departures ran only 4% below the equivalent week in 2025, and daily traffic levels tracked much closer to prior-year activity, suggesting the initial shock phase had passed.

Across the period 27 February–8 March, more than 1,500 business jet flights departed Middle East airports. Turkey absorbed the largest share of repositioning traffic, receiving 410 flights representing 26.7% of all departures. Greece followed with 95 flights, while Oman handled 92. France, Saudi Arabia and Egypt each recorded 74 inbound repositioning flights. Almost half of all departures remained within the Middle East, while Europe attracted 35% of outbound traffic.

WingX parking data also shows grounded aircraft gradually leaving conflict-affected airports. The number of parked business jets declined from a peak of 164 aircraft recorded on 3 March to 82 aircraft by 11 March, representing an estimated fleet value reduction from $4.92 billion to $2.46 billion still grounded.

Commercial aviation remains far more heavily disrupted. Scheduled airline departures in Week 10 totalled just over 16,800 flights compared with more than 30,800 during the same week last year, a 46% year-on-year decline with no visible recovery trajectory during the week.

The conflict has also driven a sharp surge in oil prices globally. The FOB Arab Gulf Cargo benchmark briefly peaked at more than 150% above pre-conflict levels, while European and US benchmarks rose between 50% and 85% above earlier levels.

For operators, the implications are immediate. Fuel can account for more than half of direct hourly operating costs depending on aircraft type, creating a significantly higher operating cost environment across the Middle East, Europe and North America.

Despite the regional disruption, the global business aviation market continues to expand. Activity rose 3.9% year-on-year in Week 10 and is up 3.9% year-to-date. North America continues to anchor growth, while South America recorded the strongest expansion, rising 29.1% during Week 10.

Nick Koscinski, WingX analyst, says: “Two weeks in, the global flight data is telling a story of shock absorption rather than escalation. The step-down from Week 9's 29% collapse to Week 10's 4% decline is significant, it tells us the acute phase of the disruption has passed, even if full recovery remains a long way off. However, the scheduled airlines picture remains deeply disrupted and oil prices show no sign of retreating. The conflict's footprint on global business jet traffic is measurable but contained for now. The next test will come in Week 11, whether we see any sort of recovery begin or whether the market settles into a prolonged new normal of suppressed regional activity and elevated fuel costs.”