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ACE 2026 - September 8th

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Fuel uplift data provides insights into conflict toll
The Arab Gulf average price in March 2026 reached $4.51 per USG, yet global business jet activity rose 7.6 per cent year-on-year versus March 2025. North America and South America movements are on the up.

Global business jet activity expanded 4.4 per cent year-on-year in Week 18 (27 April–3 May), with the year-to-date figure (1 January–3 May) steady at 4.6 per cent ahead of last year. This marks no change compared to the YTD trend reported through last week (26 April), and a sizeable improvement on the 2.6 per cent growth achieved over the same period in 2025 versus 2024, says WingX.

While accounting for 73 per cent of all business jet sectors flown last week, North America grew 5.2 per cent year-on-year, while Europe, the world's second largest market, with 13 per cent of Week 18 flights, saw strong 7.0 per cent growth, and the emerging market of the year, South America, gained 15.7 per cent, while representing just 0.6 per cent of all global activity.

Analysis of S&P Global Platts FOB Arab Gulf Cargo pricing data compared against global business jet departure data from January 2019 through March 2026 finds that business jet demand has been consistently inelastic to fuel price swings across multiple distinct market environments.

In 2022, when the Russia-Ukraine conflict generated a significant increase in fuel prices, global business jet departures continued to grow. Prices then fell back through 2023–2025 without any meaningful demand response from business jets, in either direction. Through the past six years of a pandemic and conflict outbreaks, the correlation between fuel cost and business jet flying activity has been weak. The Arab Gulf average price in March 2026 reached $4.51 per USG, yet global business jet activity rose 7.6 per cent year-on-year versus March 2025.

Estimated fuel uplift data continues to provide the clearest lens through which to measure the cumulative and weekly toll of the conflict on Middle East business aviation. The pre-conflict baseline is Weeks 7–10 (9 February–8 March). While the conflict outbreak occurred on 28 February in Week 9, the material impact on jet fuel pricing did not begin to be felt until the week of 9 March (Week 11), meaning Weeks 7–10 capture operating conditions before the fuel cost shock began cascading through the market. Across those four weeks, Middle East business jet activity averaged 1.5 million USG of estimated fuel uplift per week, establishing the baseline against which subsequent weeks are measured.

Nick Koscinski, WingX analyst, comments: “Week 18 continues the trend we've been seeing all year, with global business jet demand holding strong at +4.6 per cent year-to-date and continues to reinforce what we keep seeing: whether it's record fuel prices or conflict outbreaks, business jet demand remains intact.”

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