Middle East business aviation activity has recorded its worst phase since the Iran-Israel-US conflict began, according to WingX data, with Week 11 recording a 44% year-on-year drop in departures, the steepest decline of the period.

Approximately 750 departures were recorded in Week 11 ending 15 March, compared with around 1,100 in the same week in 2025. This represents a sharp deterioration from the 4% decline seen in Week 10 and exceeds the 29% drop recorded in Week 9, confirming that the brief stabilisation seen in the previous week has not held.

The week’s daily profile reinforces the scale of disruption, with every day tracking below prior-year levels. No day exceeded 135 departures and Saturday recorded just 87 flights, underlining the absence of any recovery signal.

Across the three-week conflict window, activity has followed a volatile path. Week 9 reflected the initial shock, Week 10 showed a short-lived rebound driven in part by aircraft exiting the region and Week 11 broke decisively lower to its weakest level yet.

Fuel uplift data mirrors this trend. After rising sharply in Week 10, consistent with longer sectors as aircraft repositioned out of the region, fuel uplift fell to 922,000 USG in Week 11, the lowest level recorded across the four-week period.

Turkey has emerged as the central transit and holding point for displaced aircraft. Between 27 February and 15 March, 545 flights from the Middle East made stopovers in Turkey, involving 166 aircraft across 42 airports. A significant share of onward movements remained within Turkey, suggesting operators are holding position rather than committing to longer repositioning into Europe. Movements back toward the Gulf, including Oman and the UAE, also outpaced flows into European destinations.

At the same time, Jet-A fuel prices have continued to climb across all major benchmarks. Arab Gulf pricing reached $4.74/USG by mid-March, more than double pre-conflict levels, compounding the operational pressures facing operators.

Despite the regional downturn, global business jet activity remains resilient, rising 4.1% year-on-year in Week 11. The Middle East decline has reduced global growth by around 0.4 percentage points, but strength in North America, Europe and Asia continues to offset the impact.

Nick Koscinski, WingX analyst, says: “Week 11 has erased the cautious optimism of Week 10. The 44% year-on-year decline is the sharpest we have recorded since the conflict began, and with Jet-A prices continuing to climb, operators across the region are facing a double headwind of suppressed demand and soaring fuel costs. The question heading into Week 12 is now how much longer operators can sustain this level of disruption before the cost of sitting on the sidelines outweighs the risk of returning to the region.”