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European business jet charter heads back to 2019 levels
The market has seen peak demand taper but Richard Koe says it's not clear whether this has eased capacity constraints or threatens to undermine business plans created on the expectation of continued record growth.

23 days into January business jet and turboprop sectors were two per cent ahead of the same 23 day period in 2022 and 14 per cent ahead of 2019, according to WingX's weekly Global Market Tracker. Business jet activity is on par with the same period last year, with sectors one per cent above 2022 and 17 per cent above January 2019. Looking back at the last three months (23/10/22 - 23/01/23), business jet activity is two per cent below comparable last year, but 18 per cent above three years ago.

Turboprop sectors are six per cent ahead of January last year and nine per cent above 2019. Scheduled airline sectors are 23 per cent ahead of January last year, but 11 per cent below January 2019. Despite two per cent growth compared to 2019, dedicated freighter activity is five per cent below the same period in January 2022.

163,000 business jet sectors departed North America between 1-23 January, on a par with the same period in January 2022 and 15 per cent above 2019. Flight hours for the same period are 27 per cent above 2019, but one per cent below last year. In the last four weeks sectors are on a par with one year ago.

Demand continues to be driven by private flight departments this month; its sectors are up nine per cent compared to the same period in January last year and 21 per cent above 2019. Aircraft management programmes are seeing a five per cent drop in sectors compared to last year, although they are still 12 per cent above 2019. Branded charter flights are down 19 per cent compared to the same period in January 2022, although 13 per cent above four years ago.

Looking at Part 135/91k business jet activity, flights in North America were up four per cent in week three ending 22 January compared to the previous week, but down one per cent compared to the same week last year. In the last four weeks activity has dropped five per cent compared to the same period last year.

The Cessna Citation Excel/XLS is the busiest branded charter aircraft type so far this month. Flights on the type are down 24 per cent compared to last year and four per cent below 2019. Van Nuys-Las Vegas McCarran is the busiest branded charter airport pair, although flights are down five per cent compared to last year.

53 per cent of business jet flights in North America this month have been less than 1.5 hours in length; flights of this duration are up three per cent compared to 2022 and 10 per cent above four years ago. Long haul flights of between six-12 hours still lag behind 2019 by six per cent, although they are 18 per cent above last year. Business jet flights over 12 hours are down 13 per cent compared to January last year and 20 per cent above 2019. Trans Atlantic business jet sectors between North America and Europe are 28 per cent above the same period in 2022 and 16 per cent above pre-pandemic 2019.

Business jet activity varies by state so far this month. Florida is the busiest state so far this year, although flight sectors are down seven per cent compared to January last year while flight hours are down six per cent compared to last year. Texas is seeing a two per cent increase in flights this year versus last, yet California experienced a three per cent decline.

23 days into January business jet flights in Europe are down eight per cent compared to the same period last year, but six per cent ahead of pre-pandemic January 2019. In the last four weeks sectors are down nine per cent compared to one year ago. Excluding Russia, business jet demand is down just three per cent compared to last year, but 10 per cent ahead of pre-pandemic January. 64 per cent of business jet flights this month are less than 90 minutes in length; flights of this duration are down one per cent compared to last year, but seven per cent above four years ago. Medium haul flights of between three to six hours are in the largest decline compared to last year, with sectors down 37 per cent compared to last year and 19 per cent down compared to four years ago. Long haul and ultra-long haul flights have rebounded well above pre-pandemic the January 2019 period. Flights between six-12 hours are up 17 per cent compared to last year and 31 per cent above 2019.

For the World Economic Forum in Davos, business jet arrivals into nearby airports (Zurich, LSZH, LSMD and LSZR), across the five day event this year were 11 per cent lower than the 2022 event. There were 372 active business jet aircraft arrivals into WEF airports during the event period this year, a 12 per cent decrease compared to the 2022 event. Comparing average daily arrivals during the event period, the 2023 edition saw one per cent more active aircraft than the 2019 event, but 12 per cent fewer than the 2022 event. The Bombardier Global Express was the aircraft with the most flight arrivals into WEF airports during this year's event, and EuroAirport Basel to Zurich was the busiest airport pair.

Outside of North America and Europe, business jet activity is trending 31 per cent above the same 23 day period in January last year and 81 per cent ahead of pre-pandemic 2019. In the last four weeks activity in Africa is up 17 per cent compared to a year ago, while Asia and South America experienced and increase of 34 per cent. The Middle East saw activity in the last four weeks rise by eight per cent compared to a year ago. Ultra-long range jets are now seeing big increases in activity in China where flights are up 26 per cent compared to last year but 17 per cent below three years ago. Heavy jets are seeing strong growth compared to pre-pandemic January, with flights up 56 per cent compared to 2019 and 64 per cent above last year.

WingX managing director Richard Koe says: "The business jet market has seen peak demand taper across almost all indicators but it's not yet clear whether this has merely eased capacity constraints or now threatens to undermine business plans created in the last two years on the expectation of continued record growth. The charter market is clearly subsiding fast in Europe but is still well above 2019 levels elsewhere."

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