In 2021 there were approximately 6,850 eVTOL orders, including firm orders, options and letters of intent, worth around $26.1 billion according to McKinsey & Co, but new research from Canada-based eVTOL developer Horizon Aircraft reveals that by 2025, 66 per cent of venture capital and private equity professionals expect the industry's order book to be over 8,000 for the year. One in six (16 per cent) believe it will be more than 10,000.

The study found that professional investors expect manned advanced air mobility aircraft to continue to dominate the order books. They accounted for around 80 per cent or orders in 2021, and by 2025 72 per cent of private equity and venture capital professionals predict them to account for between 80-90 per cent. One in five (21 per cent) said they will make up around 80 per cent of orders and just four per cent said it will be less than this.

However, despite a growing order book, 86 per cent of the private equity and venture capital professionals interviewed expect the rate at which eVTOL concepts, and there are currently around 700, go defunct over the next three years to increase. One in five (22 per cent) anticipate a dramatic rise. Similarly, they anticipate a fall in the number of manned advanced air mobility companies by 2025. There are currently around 300, but in three years time 69 per cent of professional investors surveyed said the number will fall. Around 18 per cent think there will be 150 or fewer, and 31 per cent believe there will be between 200 and 250. One in five (20 per cent) anticipate there being between 250 and 300 manned advanced mobility companies.

Horizon CEO Brandon Robinson says: “As the eVTOL market develops, the industry's order book is expecting strong growth, but our research clearly shows there is also expected to be significant consolidation in both the number of companies in the sector and prototype aircraft. Investors will increasingly focus on those aircraft that have the best chance of meeting regulatory requirements and have the potential to be commercially viable.”

Horizon Aircraft and its Cavorite X5 eVTOL are enjoying strong progress with several grants, a US Department of Defense research and development contract award and a flying large-scale prototype.

The Cavorite X5 will fly 98 per cent of its mission in a very low-drag configuration like a traditional aircraft. Flying most of the time as a normal aircraft is also safer and should make the aircraft easier to certify than radical new eVTOL designs. The full-scale aircraft will be powered by a hybrid electric system that can recharge the battery array in-flight while providing additional system redundancy. Comprehensive testing of this half-scale aircraft will reduce technical risk as Horizon continues development of its full-scale aircraft.