Andrew Butler at specialist aviation consulting firm Altea has taken time to reflect on the market availability for the ultra-long-range business jets and offer a general perspective.

“At the end of 2024 we saw a total of around 3,100 business aircraft available on the open market, an increase YoY of some 20 per cent. This represents a marked increase with 7.3 per cent of the global business aircraft fleet for sale up from 3.6 per cent in 2022 and 9.2 per cent back in pre-pandemic 2019,” he says.

Butler notes that the number of business aircraft openly available reached over 3,000 units for the first time since April 2021 and importantly he highlights a shorter span of days on the market, with aircraft averaging around 200 days to sell, down from nearly a 400-day average early in 2021. The low point in availability during that period being some 1,400 units for sale in March 2022 when supply was limited really to only aircraft that no one wanted. “Ultra long-range large cabin Gulfstream aircraft have seen an increase of availability of some 25 per cent YoY, with 66 available aircraft at year end 2024 against 52 at year end 2023,” he continues. “We observe that some new aircraft owners have stepped into ownership a little blindly, and they quickly realise that the fashion accessory large cabin Gulfstream is an overstretch for what they need. Too many new owners go for the longest range they can afford, only to discover it’s the wrong fit for their needs. Seasoned and properly advised owners choose the right aircraft at the outset.”

According to Butler, long range, large cabin, Bombardier Global family aircraft have seen an increase of 62.5 per cent in availability, albeit from a much lower base: “As with the Gulfstream, we have more first-time owners jumping in at the deep end or transferring across from charter where they have been flying in the longer range, larger cabin models, when this size of aircraft is not necessary for their needs. They then get cold feet, as a $4 million annual running cost for a Global 6500 was not what they had in mind.”

What does that mean looking forward? He believes a drop in values could well be key in 2025. For example, 2024 saw asking prices for these long-range large cabin aircraft fall on average by around 8 per cent. If this year follows that same trajectory, he fears the business jet industry may find itself in a situation where it mirrors the flat market witnessed post financial crisis, circa 2010.

“What will be more critical in this sector looking forward, especially from an OEM standpoint, and more importantly a Bombardier perspective, is the newly announced US tariffs on Canadian imports,” he explains. “This can be considered a serious threat to Bombardier’s prospects over the next four years. As an indication, since the introduction of the renamed Global series of aircraft, namely the 5500, 6500 and 7500 variants, Bombardier has delivered approximately 50 per cent of this fleet to US owners or US entities. With such a large proportion heading south from Montreal to its near neighbour, that surely must focus minds at Bombardier. We will watch the situation closely.”

The Altea team concluded from peer discussions in London that while the Trump administration was unpredictable, some of these early announcements formed a bigger strategy that in the end would be beneficial to the US but not necessarily in the form of tariffs. Butler goes on to say: “There has already been a climb down on tariffs to Mexico but in return Trump got around 10,000 Mexican troops positioned on the border. I'm sure Boeing are not going to be happy either, since any tariff increase will come with some retaliation.”

Butler believes that one area seeing increased activity is the bizliner and widebody VIP sector. “Basically, this market is coming up to its 25th birthday where many of the aircraft in operation are reaching an age where the owners, particularly Middle Eastern owners, want to renew their fleet. This ties in with significant increased fuel costs and the availability of a lot more efficient aircraft, namely the Airbus NEO and Boeing MAX. At Altea we are hearing plenty of noise, and while this has yet to filter through to hard and fast new orders or completed transactions, this may be about to change.”

He acknowledges that the catalysts for this change are well-documented, however only certain newer aircraft will achieve lower emissions targets. “If states are continuing to target net zero by 2035 it will remain a challenge. Airbus, to its credit, has been successful with orders during the last 12 months and I believe that now Boeing’s woes are becoming a past tense issue there is a lot of hope that both bizliner OEMs can take advantage of a promising situation. With Russia remaining off the radar, for the moment in any case, the Middle East is seeing much more activity, and although actual purchases have yet to ramp up, there is a definite feeling of change. Also, it’s important to add that Indonesia and African states are looking to shop in this market too as some existing state aircraft become older and budgets increase.”

Although the Altea team has mixed feelings looking ahead for 2025; the higher end sectors are looking very interesting indeed but for vastly differing reasons. “At the bizliner/widebody end we have an upsurge in interest, and in large cabin Gulfstream/Global sector we observe signs of cooling,” he concludes.