Global Jet Capital has released its five year Business Jet Market Forecast, reporting continued growth for the period. First introduced in 2021, the updated report contains insights and projections for the business aviation market through 2026, including new deliveries and pre-owned transactions. The report contains a high level of detail based on outputs generated by Global Jet Capital's proprietary transaction forecast model.
Based on its model, Global Jet Capital projects $186.8 billion in total transaction volume of new and pre-owned transactions between 2022 and 2026, with a compound annual growth rate of 5.1 per cent during that time.
The report also forecasts heavy and medium jet demand should increase at faster rates than other size categories. North America will remain the largest business jet market over the next five years with Europe being second largest. Additionally, Latin America will be an important pre-owned market.
Global Jet Capital believes that the projections contained within the forecast will be a useful tool for individuals and organisations as they navigate the years to come.
“If you are active in the business aviation environment, you recognise that despite the continuing negative effect of COVID-19 on world health and various business sectors, its effect on business aviation has been altogether different. The pandemic more broadly socialised a value proposition those of us in the business aviation industry have always understood. It's the unique value proposition of business aviation, supported by a mature industry demonstrating balanced supply and demand dynamics, that will support sustainable growth for the foreseeable future,” says chief marketing officer Andrew Farrant.
Other highlights include that total new and pre-owned business jet transaction unit volumes are forecast to decrease eight per cent in 2022 as pre-owned transactions take a step back from all time high volumes seen in 2021. However, the increase of new deliveries and growing demand for larger jets should drive a three per cent increase in transaction dollar volume, despite the decrease in overall transaction counts.
Major aircraft manufacturers reported strong order intake during 2021, resulting in increasing backlogs. As a result, most manufacturers plan to increase production over the next few years. New deliveries are expected to increase seven per cent in 2022, while new delivery dollar volume should increase 16 per cent. Over the next five years, new deliveries are forecast to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of just over four per cent and dollar volume should grow at a CAGR of just under eight per cent.
Following substantial increases in 2021, pre-owned transactions are forecast to decline by 11 per cent in 2022, with pre-owned transaction dollar volume declining by 10 per cent. An uptick in new deliveries, a continued normalisation of markets, and a lack of options in pre-owned inventories should drive the decline. However, continued market demand should increase pre-owned deliveries over the next five years. Pre-owned transactions are expected to increase at a CAGR of just under one per cent with dollar volume growing at a CAGR of over two per cent.