History, they say, is a good indicator of the future. Looking at the likely future development of the market for business aviation in Europe does require, firstly, a certain retrospective approach, and this I think is best delivered through the ‘eyes’ of one of our European Citation customers.

Back in the late 1940s a young Italian man visited the US as part of his country’s delegation under the US inspired ‘Marshall Plan’ for the economic rejuvenation of Europe.

During the visit, the visitor spotted a vending machine, something hitherto unknown in Europe. Taking the idea back to Europe, he sunk all his savings into a vending machine business.

Well, the business started to develop. In addition the young man had a fascination for aviation so, as times improved, he trained as a pilot and then bought his first aeroplane. Next, export markets for the growing business developed, and so did the use of the aeroplane, as typically travel was required to cities other than the capital cities of Europe.

As liberalisation of trade, free movement of capital, growth in stock markets and, more generally, globalisation began to develop, by the mid 1990s our customer bought his first Citation jet. Some five years later, he more than doubled his investment in his aircraft and bought a new XLS.

By this time, his vending machines and its licensed technology had been exported all over the world, and the company’s sales had reached around €200 million. The economic renaissance in Europe was complete, as across Europe, private businesses from Dublin to Vienna experienced the same thing. At the same time, the US and EU, with reciprocal investment and trade in each others’ countries, had generated the first $1 trillion per annum trade alliance the world had ever seen.

Our customer’s experience is therefore instructive in what we at Cessna have seen these last 10 to 15 years in Europe; a doubling of our fleet size to some 500 aircraft. Globalisation has significantly expanded all business in Europe, which now has the largest number of companies in the top 50 companies in the world.

As business has gone global, so have our customers, and as the airline industry has struggled, so we have picked up the slack for private business. In turn we have become a more accepted face of the success of capitalism – a problem at some stages in the development of aviation in the EU.\r

So what of the future? Most commentators would expect this trend to continue and, in fact, increase. As the EU becomes a home to more countries from the East, so the pace of economic development will increase. This will drive demand for business aircraft. Currently, for example, while only some 20 or so western business jets are registered in Russia, the actual fleet is estimated at nearly three to four times that figure.

Yes, the industry faces challenges in terms of airport access, growing environmental concerns of Government, and airport and airway congestion, but the prognosis has to be good. Europe and

the US have embraced the ideal that free trade and commerce is the route to wealth and providing for its citizens. While we might hit some ‘light chop’ along the way for sure, it is very likely that our industry is set for continued growth in demand in all sectors.

Trevor Esling, Cessna Sales director, Europe, Middle East and Africa.