US market intelligence company Jetcraft has released its Five-Year New & Pre-Owned Business Aviation Market Forecast, the first of its kind to predict both new and pre-owned aircraft transactions. The forecast anticipates 11,765 pre-owned transactions over the next five years, equating to $61 billion in value, and 3,444 new deliveries representing $90.5 billion. By 2023 it is expected that industry value will reach nearly $30 billion per annum.,

Owner and chairman of the board Jahid Fazal-Karim says: “This is the first forecast to precisely analyse both new and pre-owned business aircraft transactions over a five-year period. The findings show that our industry will continue to grow in size and scale, hitting nearly $30 billion per year in revenue by 2023, a truly impressive figure.

“New aircraft unit deliveries are predicted to stay flat throughout the forecast period while generating higher revenues, due to the increase in large aircraft transactions. Meanwhile, the pre-owned market is forecast to grow at a proportionally faster rate than new.”

Pre-owned business aircraft transactions are expected to outpace those of new deliveries four to one by 2023, and Fazal-Karim continues: “Buyers who in the past exclusively bought new aircraft are now more willing to consider pre-owned if it suits their mission, partly due to better opportunities for aircraft refurbishment and increasing MRO capabilities.”

Jetcraft's forecast also maintains the clear shift towards large aircraft, both in pre-owned and new unit deliveries, and brings attention to the fact that the average retirement age of a business aircraft is 32. Fazal-Karim concludes: “Our new forecast better reflects the current aircraft ownership experience and provides a more focused view of the industry. We are set for a dynamic five years, both in pre-owned and new aircraft transactions, and I look forward to Jetcraft playing its part.”