The International Bureau of Aviation has observed that the aviation community could have been better prepared for the rise in fuel prices that have hit the industry. Prices of crude oil and jet fuel have been rising steadily since the late 1990s and are currently running at particularly high levels. Russell Hubbard,

head of commercial services at the IBA said: “Most of the events of the past three years which have so wounded the aviation business, have been tragically unpredictable. However, should we have been so surprised by events on the world’s oil markets? As a major industry consumer of a refined product, could aviation have planned better?”

The price of jet fuel is directly linked to that of crude oil, and steep rises in the price of crude have traditionally been linked to events in the Middle East, such as the Iranian revolution, the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait and now the war in Iraq. But oil prices have for many decades traded on certainty and uncertainty. Hubbard said: “When prices were low in the 1990s were provisions being made for the next major upswing in fuel costs? Aviation has to accept that one of its major operating costs will always be volatile.”