Seldom does any event have such an impact on the whole world than that of September 11th. Shock, horror, incredulity, then anger and determination: The world was one in its reaction to the terrorist atrocities in New York, Washington and Pennsylvania.

And, of course, the air transport industry was right at the heart of events. The tragic loss of thousands of lives following the transformation of four commercial airliners into weapons of war has changed the industry for ever.

US airlines, and those elsewhere with US-bound services were initially grounded, then faced much reduced loads and difficult decisions. Several have succumbed to the myriad of pressures on their financial status, and ceased flying. Many, many others have reduced services and laid off staff, who knows for how long.

In the face of such over-whelming carnage and suffering, it is difficult to focus on business issues. Yet the experience of history, the advice of sages and presidents, and the simple facts of life tell us that to continue with business as usual is the right and proper thing to do.

So, some weeks on from the dramatic events (and still at the time of writing awaiting a dram-atic response from the world coalition), how does the future look for our small section of the global economy, the business flying community in Europe?

Common sense tells us that fewer people will fly on business in the coming months, but equally that business aircraft will certainly be more appealing as a safer option than commercial flights. It is a delicately balanced equation which will probably mean that business aviation is spared the major travails of some airlines.

We asked a variety of EBAN readers for their early thoughts on the future, and found universal but cautious optimism.

Operators fear security burden in aftermath of attacks

From his company’s offices at Billund Airport in Denmark, New Air’s Thomas Skindhoj told us: “Of course it’s quite a concern to everybody in the business but I must say this place has been quite busy, even though we’re as stunned as everybody else.”

Asked whether people were likely to turn to private operators after events in the US, Skindhoj said: “I could certainly see that happening, especially for companies who send say 15 to 20 people on scheduled airlines. Today, the Danish football teams whose matches in Europe were cancelled as a result of the tragedy, rebooked their flights with us.”

As far as the Danish commercial airlines are concerned, Skindhoj believes they have little to worry about: “I think they're strong enough to cope,” he said. “We’ve only got two really big route operators on a scheduled basis – SAS and Maersk Air. I don't see there’s any chance of those companies going bust.”

Just recently, New Air has been flying missions between Italy and Kosovo for NATO. While the company’s Fokker 50s normally attract charter interest from companies attending big conferences, military personnel, football, handball and ice hockey clubs, New Air also has a Citation 500 and Navajo Chieftain for customers with alternative needs.

Twinjet Aircraft’s ACJ was actually in Washington when the first hijacked plane hit the World Trade Center. The aircraft was secured and phone calls made to ensure crew and passengers were safe. It was under contract to a client and remained there for a week before it was allowed to return to the UK.

Twinjet’s Steve Wells highlighted two main areas in which operators may be adversely affected by these events. He said: “Fuel costs are going to go up and insurance costs are going to rocket. I’ve a letter here from an insurance company withdrawing war cover and passenger liability. It gives a seven-day notice of withdrawal, and they’re reviewing the situation and will offer a renewal of those parts of cover, before the expiry but obviously, one assumes, at an increased premium.

“There’s a lot of disparity on the insurance side of it because people are trying to work out their risks.”

On the plus side, however, there has already been an upsurge in charter requests. Said Wells: “There have certainly been a significant increase in requests for flights to and from the US. It’s mainly from brokers but the requests are primarily company-based. A lot them are large corporations who have their own aeroplanes or use a mixture of airline travel and charter, but obviously they’re now looking to use charter a bit more, given the current circumstances.

“We’ve heard of one company who told their staff that they’re not to travel on any American or UK airlines at the moment. That was something I heard two or three days ago. Obviously by chartering their own aircraft, they’re in a more secure environment – complete control over who’s onboard.”

Asked how Twinjet’s pricing structure for its ACJ might compare with that of an airline’s business

class seats, Wells explained: “In our current situation, we are just under the comparable seat cost of a business class fare to the States. We have 28 seats and will be going up to 34 in January, which will make us almost comparable with a business class air-fare for that number of passengers. Forty seems to be the break-even factor.

“When we get to 34, we’ll still be slightly higher but you’ve got a reduced risk and you can operate as and when you wish, through an airfield that's probably a lot closer to your home base.”

So, is it true that general aviation travel offers a reduced security risk to that of commercial airline travel? Said Wells: “If you’re travelling on a scheduled airline, you don't know who’s sitting next to you. The airline might know but you don’t know, and you are just one of a huge number of passengers the airline processes every day.

“Whereas if you charter the aircraft, you can personally know everybody who’s on the aeroplane. Company employees you can check out, you’re not going to have anyone who is not known to you. I think that’s the crucial factor.

“From Twinjet’s point of view, we have a completely UK crew and they’re all known quantities. If you travel with scheduled airlines, you could have a first officer who joined the company six months before. Who knows where he’s come from.”

Regarding the company’s own security measures, Wells added: ”Our crew always check the aircraft prior to departure. They always do a complete thorough search and our aeroplane is sealed every night.”

Twinjet says it has a fairly full order book for the next couple of months and like all operators, will be now be keeping a careful eye on developments in the Middle East.

In the light of events in the US, America’s premiere business aviation event – NBAA 2001 – was postponed. Many from Europe had planned flights, booths and attendance at the show but said TAG Aviation Holding’s ceo Roger McMullin, it was absolutely the right decision.

“We’ve heard of one company who told their staff that they’re not to travel on any American or UK airlines

at the moment”

From his Geneva office, he told EBAN: “I thought it was appropriate to cancel. I don’t think there was any alternative. The turn-out would have been low and the mood of the show would have been depressing.”

As many have indicated, it is still too early to make accurate predictions on the way this trauma will affect the industry. Said McMullin: “With respect to the effect on our European operations, I’m genuinely not sure. Like everybody else, we saw a big bubble of activity and we’re still working with that, moving people around. With our foreign-registered aircraft, of course we lose some flexibility in terms of going to the States right now. We had one of our Falcon 900s stuck on the ground for five days and we lost the revenue on that.”

“We had one of our Falcon 900s stuck on the ground for five days and we lost the revenue on that”

In general terms of conveying the business aviation message, McMullin said: “All the characteristics which drove people off the airlines and on to charter in the first place, are going to become more acute. Security in

terms of the safety factor and then all the inconvenience of security procedures and probably the reduced number of flights and frequencies are all factors which will tend to support the charter market.

“On the opposite side of that, we don't know what’s going to be imposed on us. We don’t know what we’re going to have to do security-wise. On the longer-range flights, we don’t know what restrictions are going to be placed on us.

“For example, if you come out of South America or Mexico into the US right now, you have to go through what they call a southern border crossing procedure where you have to make a stop in one of four or five designated airports coming into the southern area of the US. If that were to happen, let’s say, for European traffic going to the US, that wouldn’t be particularly convenient.

“If they had a Global Express and they wanted to go from Geneva to San Francisco nonstop and they had to make a stop in Washington or JFK to clear customs and immigration, it wouldn’t be too handy.”

Economically-speaking, McMullin said: “The overall economy has always had a pervasive effect on business aviation in that it’s sensitive to that. Clearly that’s not going to be real good in the near-term.

“I would say in the longer-term, I think it will be good for the business provided we don’t get put into a regulatory environment which makes it as inconvenient to find a business aircraft as it does to fly on a commercial jet.”

McMullin’s hunch? Will the authorities be tempted to over-regulate? “I think they have bigger fish to fry,” he said. “They have more things to worry about right now than trying to figure out how to deal with that small one quarter of one per cent of the total traffic.

“That said, I do think we’ll see changes whereby FBOs will have to scan baggage for example but whether we’re going to be severely restricted or not, I doubt it.”

With many aspects to its business, TAG Aviation has a lot both to gain or potentially, to lose. McMullin said: “Our size and scope gives us some diversity. Of course we have a very large aircraft management fleet so by the nature of our customer base, it gives us a certain amount of diversity there.

“I think any of the honest charter vendors will tell you that charter has been down previously, just due to the economy. It’s slower this year than last. And of course that has a fairly big effect on all of us. We profit

off that charter, its a good part of our business.

“In some of our other areas, like Farnborough for example, we’re making a lot of investment now and that’s going to be particularly good in the future.”

Insurance is one area that has been most affected by the American disaster. Said McMullin: “War risk insurance has been cancelled worldwide and they’re saying you’re not going to be able to get war risk insurance on any aeroplane, not just business aviation.

“Admittedly, those rates have been relatively low and the only way to really reset those rates immediately, rather than at each individual policy renewal date, is to exercise the cancellation provision.

“I fully expect that insurance will become available again but if some sea-change like that occurred – somebody says we’re just not going to insure aircraft against a terrorist act – that would have a pretty big effect.”

Brokers called upon to supply emergency flights

Said Winair, Winkler and Feyock’s md Fritz Winkler: “Before the US tragedy, the market was slow. There’s no doubt that people have been hesitant – all we can say with regard to our clients is that it is not as quiet here as it is in the US. We do have some activity.

“I’m pretty sure that in the next couple of weeks, we will see a slow-down because people will be hesitant and wait. Here in Europe, what will also happen is that people will wait to see what the dollar exchange rate is doing, because of course that also has a big influence on their decision.”

Further to predictions of lower passenger figures for airline companies, Winkler says corporate aviation may now get a boost. “For charter operators and air taxi companies,” he said “I think business will more likely be even better than before because people might think that a chartered aeroplane is probably safer because it doesn’t have the risk of hijacking. Also they will not have all the hassle with security controls, certainly not as bad as we will see with the airliners.

“It depends also if any restrictions are coming. Nobody knows at the moment if there will be special security controls or some other burden regarding security for our type of aviation.“

Winair, Winkler and Feyock operates its broker business out of Zweibrucken, Germany. Regarding the direct impact events in the US have had on business, Winkler said: “Obviously there have been no decisions made in the last three days because people are shocked. Having said that, some people are more or less ready to make a decision so I’m sure we will see some progress with them in the next week or so.”

The company currently owns one Cheyenne II XL – which it just received back from a paint and interior refurbishment – and a Cheyenne I for which it already has several candidates. Additional to these, the company has other aircraft under contract.

Hunt & Palmer’s part in the events which immediately followed the attacks on the World Trade Center largely involved emergency flights out of Canada with aircraft which included Falcon 50 and 900 aircraft. From the company’s international vip sales department, Philippe Fragniere told us: “There was no immediate effect on bookings – we had flights in Europe which were not affected. It took a few hours for all of us, like I guess all the clients, to realise the impact of what had happened.

“Later in the day and especially the day after, we started to get a lot of requests for transatlantic flights. Either to fly people as close as possible from the States, or to fly them out of Canada, which we did both ways.”

Asked whether there has since been a big upturn in calls, Fragniere said: “We have had calls from contacts who occasionally book aircraft but not on a regular basis. Just at present, people seem to be less worried about the cost than they used to be in the past.

“We have had calls from two or three sources who normally fly on scheduled routes, who decided even for short trips, to use a private jet. Evidently they had decided that cost was not so important.”

When comparing general aviation operations with those of commercial aviation, Fragniere said: “When you arrive at an airfield to board on a private jet, you still have the control, they still do all the checks, but they do it for such a small number of passengers that it obviously takes less time.

“Since events in the US, I tend to think that we are really in two different businesses because the whole process of flying on scheduled airline flights is a very different process to flying on a private jet.

It’s simply a different frame of mind or financial investment to decide to fly scheduled or to opt to fly on a private jet.”

That said, Fragniere also points out the distinction between commercially registered business aircraft and privately-held ones. He said: “I think there’s a big difference between a privately-owned aircraft and a commercially-registered aircraft. If you have a Challenger or 900 which is privately owned, privately registered, it is only really ever under the control of the owner and the crew.

“If you have an aircraft operated by a company on a charter, it’s a different operation with different rules. This atrocity has made it very difficult to predict what is and what is not possible but as a company, we are always extremely careful who we transport, from where, to where and for whom.

“Hunt & Palmer has a history of flying a lot of corporates. We do fly private individuals but we know who they are, we know what they do and we always tend to be cautious on the side of the passenger.”

Asked whether events in the US are likely to make the charter and perhaps ownership of aircraft such as the BBJ and ACJ more attractive, Fragniere commented: “Everybody in this industry has been trying to explain this message to clients for a long time now but I think now people will see it differently. They will see clearly the airline option and the private aircraft option and know exactly how it works, from arrival at the airport to their arrival at the final destination.

“If you have a group of 40 people and the price per seat on a commercially-registered but chartered BBJ is competitive, I think people might go for that. Equally, they may not want all their employees in the same plane at the same time.”

Philippe Fragniere has been involved in business aviation since the early 90s and believes Europe’s general attitude to financial investment will see it through a period of economic decline. He said: “I think people's views on economics in Europe are more conservative than in the US. Europeans have less stocks or speculative investments so while they did increase their wealth thanks to the stock market when times were good, the slowdown will be less of less significance to them than in the States.

“We are always extremely careful who we transport, from where, to where and for whom”

“Since I started at this company, we have always tried to spread out the risk; that's why we have a lot of clients – because you have nothing to fall back on when something major occurs. If you have a client flying once or twice a year, great. If he comes back, even better.”

As to the near-future plans of Hunt & Palmer, Fragniere said: “We’re going to take it easy in the sense that we don’t want to promote too strongly the differences between the different areas of aviation.

“I think airlines have their own problems, they have to sort them out and we have to carry on. But I would not embark tomorrow morning on a big promotion saying they are no good and we are the only ones who are any good. It wouldn’t be right.”

If the early signs are right, Hunt & Palmer won’t actually have to.

FBOs forced to tighten up their passenger controls

When we caught up with Far North Aviation’s Andrew Bruce, he had little good news from an FBO perspective. Bruce told us: “We have witnessed an almost total drop in transatlantic traffic. As I speak now, we are experiencing a very very slow pick-up. As far as the airlines are concerned, I think it’s going to damage them quite severely. I think people are not going to fly unless it is absolutely job essential.”

Either that, or look for a ‘safer’ alternative. Said Bruce: “I would think it’s a sensible option for people to look at general aviation now. Obviously I am biased but I think it’s far more controllable and hence safer.

“In terms of handling, GA is a non-public affair. It’s a closed shop as such, you’re not queuing in terminals. Is someone going to burst into a Beechcraft King Air and say take me to Cuba? I don’t think so.”

That said, Bruce agrees that if someone has the desire to cause havoc without any concern for their own life, there are limits on how much you can do to stop them. He said: “If somebody snaps, I’m afraid you can’t forecast that. Equally, if someone goes berserk with a Kalashnikov – which has happened too – you can’t legislate for that.”

With regard to the possible financial and regulatory impact on the industry, Bruce said: “I think the economy will basically drop. In my opinion, even before events in the US, we were heading for a fairly large recession in Britain. This will make it even more inevitable.”

“I would think rules and regulations will be tightened. Costs will rise, particularly in fuel. From

our own company perspective, there is very little we can do to prevent the problems.

“That said, I know we’ll come through it. We’re in the jungle and it’s survival of the fittest,”

Kurz Aviation Service’s Barbara Kick said that while the terrorist activities in the US had not vastly impacted on her business, there were already some notable changes in place. She told EBAN: “I don't think this has really affected Kurz Aviation. However, vips are no longer allowed to drive directly to their aircraft; everyone has to go through the control here. This was put into place the day after the atrocity by the airport and immigrations authorities.

While this will hamper Kurz Aviation’s business, Kick said her own personal view is that it is a good thing. She said: “It’s not very good for business because we now have to charge them for the transport to the aircraft but I think it’s for the good of everyone that all people go through the controls. After all, it’s not only the lesser-known people who might have bad intentions.”

Asked whether GA handling is inherently safer than that of the commercial airlines, Kick said: “Certainly, you should know the people who are onboard with you. You don’t have to feel unsure of anyone’s presence, perhaps only the pilot’s.

“I could imagine that this extra feeling of security could give rise to the popularity of business aviation.”

While Kurz Aviation Services’ traffic levels had been quite steady over the summer, August was a quiet month for them. Said Kick: “It’s gone down but not substantially. It’s quiet at he moment as many Americans have cancelled GA flights, but I guess it will start up again soon.”

Asked whether flights were cancelled more out of fear or respect, she replied: “I would say both.”

One of the first counter-measures implemented by the UK after the terrorist activities in America was to ban all flights over the city of London (excepting emergency flights like those of Virgin HEMS and the police). London City airport was temporarily closed and as a result of that, other London airports were called upon.

“If somebody snaps, goes berserk with a Kalashnikov, you can’t legislate for that”

Said Biggin Hill’s Julie Black: “We were inundated with aircraft from London City. The team here worked incredibly hard; some people did 16 to 17 hour days without stopping.

We had a couple of operators here from LCY – Swiss Wings and Scot Airways – who moved their whole operation here for two days.”

Other direct effects of the US atrocity included a stranded aircraft and a very worried handling agent. Said Black: “We had a stranded American aircraft and crew here who couldn’t get back. Although they weren’t from the New York or Washington areas, they just wanted to be home with their families. In the end, they got a slot at some unsociable hour on the Friday and had to reposition out to Luton.

“GA has always been an obvious risk because it has always been operated on trust”

“We also have a handling agent here who’s father had an office in the World Trade Center. Understandably she was horrified until she was able to clarify his whereabouts and well-being. What’s more, she’s a native New Yorker and knows friends and family who have not been accounted for as yet.”

Asked what extra security measures she expects to be put in place, Black said: “Probably that all passengers and crew will have to be fully screened on AOC flights. And if that were a rule which were applied to all general aviation, it would cripple Biggin Hill because on the average Saturday or Sunday on a sunny summer’s day, we have more flights than Gatwick.

“Having said that, I doubt if that will be the recommendation. I’m sure it will only apply to AOC operators. But then, as we know, an aircraft with an AOC might not always be operating an AOC flight and then who’s it down to? Who decides whether its AOC or not...the captain?”

Biggin Hill says it is currently enjoying an advantage over other FBOs in the London area. Being the owners and operators and managers of both the FBO and the airport, they are responsible for their own security screening, their own ramp.

Black explained: “Some of the FBOs up at Luton will not have national aviation security programme level of equipment on their FBO premises. So people will have to go across the main terminal for screening. If a captain wants to go to and from his GIV four times in a morning, he can do that here. It means we’ve got to screen him every time he goes out to the aeroplane, which we never had to do before, but we can do it because it’s our ramp and it’s our security screening equipment.”

Julie Black says that events in the US not only point the finger at airline security but also that of general aviation. She said: “Apart from the obvious lapse in US domestic airlines security which everybody in the aviation industry has bleated on about for years, a personal view has to be that GA has always been an obvious risk because it has always been operated on trust.

“I don’t think that it can be allowed to continue to do that, which is a shame because it has worked so far. But now we’re all going to work in a heightened state of paranoia and awareness. The world is not going to be the same again.

“There are further long-term aspects which I find worrying for my business, here at Biggin Hill in particular. People’s attitude to flying will change, people will reduce the amount that they fly. We’re seeing airlines cut back schedules That is going to create more capacity at other airports in the London area, and some of the fringe airports like Biggin Hill will lose out to that because if there are more slots available at other airports, they may be desirable to operators.

“On the the other hand,” said Black, “hopefully the corporate and ad hoc charter market will see some additional growth. And let’s face it, some side of the aviation industry needs a boost right now.

“I know that in the immediate aftermath, I got several calls and the operators here got loads of calls about charter. I had a GV on my ramp and I had three calls about it. How everybody knew it was there, I will never know.”