Production cycles being rather lengthy in our industry, looking ahead 10 years puts us about two or perhaps three new products into the future. The principal question we will ask ourselves in defining these aircraft is this: how do we strike a balance between introducing new technology and providing value to the end user?

If we look back ten years, we can certainly see innovations that did not provide perceived value, the Beech Starship being the prime example. Those of us who participate in the decision process need to focus on shareholder return and, therefore, look cautiously at proposals from our engineering gurus. Fly-by-wire systems are but one example of a potentially beneficial, but costly new technology. Will the consumer pay for the benefits provided by such a system—a good subject for careful analysis.

All that being said, there will certainly be advances over the next decade and they will fall roughly into four categories: electronics and avionics; exotic metals and composites; powerplants; and assembly technologies.

Miniaturisation and central processor technology will yield increasing benefits in terms of reduced avionics weight and enhanced reliability. Handy items such as the Universal Cockpit Display, which eliminates the need to carry approach plates, will come into widespread use. Pilots will find better things to do than update their Jepp binders. Head-up guidance and artificial vision systems will enhance all-weather capability.

Certainly we will see increased use of composite technology, although it seems unlikely at the moment that other manufacturers will embrace it to the extent that Raytheon has. New powdered metals hold the promise of offering the weight benefits of composites, while allowing traditional construction and repair techniques.

Advances in powerplant technology will continue to be a catalyst for new aircraft development. Lightweight Williams engines with thrust to weight ratios of 7-to-1 are opening new markets for ultralight, entry-level jets—aircraft that were not envisioned by most in the industry just ten years ago.

Conversely, advances in engine technology also have a way of prolonging the life of many existing airframe designs. Consider the advent of the turbofan engine in the seventies. It breathed new life into designs such as the Hawker midsize jet and made the Lear 35 (a derivative of the turbojet-powered Lear 25) the best selling business jet of its day.

As a whole, our industry still has great strides to make in the area of automation and improved manufacturing efficiencies. Over the next decade we will see much improved supply chain management - no doubt aided by new Internet-based resources.

Will all of these advances be incorporated into a supersonic business jet? Certainly there is demand for this type of transportation and much of the technology required is available today. Whether the market size justifies the massive investment to produce such an aircraft is another question. We may well see answers emerging before the decade is out.

The broader trend that we see is the increasing utilisation rate for business jets. Ten years ago, a typical business jet was flown perhaps 400 hours a year. With the advent of fractional ownership and greater demand in general for business jet transportation, the usage rate is trending towards 600 to 1,000 hours a year. We therefore need to design new business aircraft to be maintained as if they were airliners.

All of these trends and developments suggest that new models ten years hence externally will look much like the aircraft being delivered today. But they will employ a range of technologies that reduce cost, improve performance and enhance utilisation rates.\r

The top item on my wish list for the coming decade, however, does not involve a new technology. It is for sincere cooperation between the FAA and JAA. True harmonisation would make new products more widely available and more affordable for consumers, and would certainly be a boon to the global manufacturing community.

By Brian Barents, president and ceo of Galaxy Aerospace