Honeywell has released the results of its latest survey of business aviation, based on input from 1,000 flight departments in North America, Latin America, Europe and Asia.

After a record peak in 2001, it predicts that deliveries will decline modestly in 2002 and 2003 and then resume growing. Later in the decade, new aircraft offerings will stimulate a steady climb toward nearly 900 aircraft deliveries per year.

Manufacturer backlogs now stand at more than 1,800 aircraft. Despite evidence of significant slowing of order rates in some segments last year, the backlog remains high in historical terms, and few orders have been cancelled. Honeywell expects operators to take delivery of approximately 700 new business jets in 2002 (compared to 769 a year ago) and roughly 650 in 2003.

The business environment is mixed in Europe, but operators in the region’s larger economies reported reasonably favourable conditions. Stronger value of the Euro versus the dollar and optimism about prospects for increased business in Eastern European countries helped boost expectations. Regulatory changes (noise, emissions and reduced vertical separation requirements), are contributing to new aircraft purchase expectations in Europe as operators desire to retain the benefits of business aviation with compliant aircraft in the future. European operators say they expect to expand or replace the equivalent of 30% of their current jet fleet in the next five years. That compares with an average of 29% last year and an average of 22% over the last five years. Requirements for improved cabin size and aircraft age were most frequently mentioned as reasons for purchasing new jets. More range, improved speed/performance and potential regulatory impacts were also cited with increased frequency as was warranty coverage. The anticipated age at which European business aircraft will be replaced declined by nearly two years, reflecting a desire for newer equipment in the region this year.

About 54% of the jets European operators expect to take delivery of during the next five years are recently introduced, either new or derivative models. There is an emphasis on new very light and, to a lesser extent, large inter-continental aircraft.