Purchase expectations in Europe have reached an all-time high, according to AlliedSignal Aerospace's annual business aviation outlook, published in October. European operators say that they expect to expand or replace the equivalent of 29 per cent of their current jet fleet in the next five years, compared with 17 per cent last year. They cite regulatory changes and improvements in the economy. Aircraft age, a requirement for improved cabin size and improved speed and range were most frequently mentioned as reasons for expecting to purchase new jets. The anticipated age at which new aircraft will be replaced fell by two years, reflecting the sharp increase in purchase expectations.\rNew models continue to be important in stimulating predicted demand. Almost half of the jets European operators expect to take delivery of during the next five years are new or derivative models.\rAlliedSignal's report, in its eighth year, also projects continuing strong demand for new business aircraft worldwide, with deliveries of 6,800 units, valued at nearly $89 billion, for the period 2000-2010. Market growth will be driven by the impact of new and derivative aircraft models entering service with corporate flight departments, as well as by rapidly expanding fractional ownership plans. After cresting in 2000, deliveries will remain at or near record levels before climbing again toward the end of the decade. \rGlobally, purchase expectations also reached record levels. Based on input from more than 1,000 flight departments in North America, Latin America and Europe, the five year world market extrapolation for new business jet deliveries rose 24 per cent over last year's results. \r"The growing importance of aircraft as a business tool, the development of ever more capable aircraft models and the continued expansion of fractional ownership, which brings new customers to business aviation, continue to stimulate customer demand," said Rob Ruck, vp of AlliedSignal Aerospace.\rAccording to the survey, fractional ownership has generated more than 200 new aircraft orders and options worldwide this year. The majority of fractional share owners are customers who have never owned an aircraft. Participation in fractional ownership plans by traditional corporate operators remains relatively limited. Survey results\rJumbo and global
Deliveries to jump from 86 in 1998 to 116 this year. 2000-2010: Deliveries of 886 jumbo and global aircraft. Fractional ownership is extending access to a larger customer base.

Large
Deliveries of 660 aircraft by 2010. Market expanding through fractional ownership.

Medium and super midsize
1,700 new aircraft by 2010. Large market growth potential due to high perceived customer value.\rLight and light-medium
OEM backlogs remain strong. 2,400 anticipated deliveries by 2010.\rEntry level
Significant growth, good aircraft value and new models being introduced. Deliveries in excess of 1,200 forecast in the next 11 years.